Image Credit
Jeff Colhoun
New data points to a slide in U.S. arrivals
The Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at Universidad Anáhuac Cancún tallied a 6.5% dip in American arrivals to Cancun during the first half of 2025. That number translates to 2.89 million U.S. visitors, down from 3.09 million recorded in early 2024. Across Mexico’s other marquee beach towns, the pattern repeats. Puerto Vallarta saw U.S. arrivals contract 5.5%, and Los Cabos slipped about 1%. Even landlocked Guadalajara reported a 2.1% decline, dropping to 659,000 U.S. arrivals from 673,000 last year. Nationwide, U.S. visits fell 2.2% to 7.29 million between January and June 2025, compared with 7.45 million in the same months of 2024.Mexico City breaks the trend
One place is swimming against the current: Mexico City. The capital welcomed 943,952 U.S. travelers in the first six months of 2025, an 8.1% jump over the 872,837 logged a year earlier. “Many U.S. visitors are increasingly opting for urban adventures over beach getaways,” STARC researchers wrote in a June briefing. The city’s museums, food scene and growing community of remote workers have turned neighborhoods such as Roma and Condesa into digital-nomad hubs.Why are beach numbers sagging?
Sargassum on the shoreline
Brown mats of sargassum seaweed once again blanketed stretches of Quintana Roo in 2025. “Sargassum has changed the postcard image of our beaches,” tourism secretary Bernardo Vázquez said at a May press conference. Daily clean-up crews keep popular zones swimmable, yet social-media photos of algae-choked surf can push last-minute planners toward other Caribbean sands.Airline seat squeeze
STARC also traced a 7.3% drop in scheduled seats from the United States to Mexican resorts in late 2024. Grounded aircraft linked to global engine overhauls, high fuel prices and shifting airline budgets shrank nonstop options. Fewer seats—and higher fares—naturally chill demand.Exchange-rate math
A stronger peso is eroding Mexico’s reputation as the unbeatable bargain. The dollar bought roughly 20 pesos in early 2023, but hovers closer to 17-18 pesos by mid-2025—an 11% peso gain. The difference can add up quickly on room rates and margarita tabs.Safety perceptions
While the Mexican Caribbean remains heavily policed, sporadic headlines about crime influence planning decisions. U.S. State Department advisories urge added caution in parts of Quintana Roo, and a single viral video can outweigh years of tranquil vacations in the court of public opinion.Who is filling the loungers? Canadians, for one
For the first time, Canadians now edge out Americans among foreigners landing in Cancun. Flights from Toronto spiked 42.9% year-over-year, while Montreal service ballooned more than 60%. Tour operators credit extra lift, competitive package prices and Canada-to-U.S. travel fatigue for the surge. The longer average stay—often one to two weeks—helps hotels cushion softer U.S. occupancy. European and South American arrivals are climbing as well, preventing an outright plunge in international traffic. Still, U.S. guests historically provide the critical mass that keeps plane cabins full and resort staff working double shifts, so even modest American pullbacks ripple through local economies.Big picture: a post-pandemic reset
During the border-tight years of 2020-2021, Americans made up more than 76% of Mexico’s foreign visitors. Their share slipped to 65.5% in early 2024 and continues to normalize as travelers regain the confidence—and routes—to hop to Europe or Asia. Destination fatigue plays a role too; Cancun veterans often pivot to new bucket-list locales once entry restrictions fade elsewhere.Tips for Travelers
- Hunt for shoulder-season bargains. With more hotel rooms chasing fewer Americans, late-summer and fall deals are resurfacing, especially in Costa Mujeres and south along the Riviera Maya.
- Track the sargassum forecast. Local authorities publish daily beach reports; pick accommodations with on-site barriers or easy access to sargassum-free cenotes.
- Compare flight options. Nonstop capacity remains tight out of several U.S. hubs. Connecting through Mexico City or Monterrey can open award space and lower cash fares.
- Mind the peso. Credit cards without foreign-transaction fees and ATM withdrawals beat airport exchange counters now that the peso is stronger.
- Consider inland detours. If the beach feels overdone, pair a few coastal nights with Mérida’s colonial charm or a taco-fueled weekend in CDMX.
FAQ
Is it still safe to visit Cancun?
Resort areas maintain a robust security presence, and millions of visitors report trouble-free holidays. Staying on licensed tours, using registered taxis or rideshares, and exercising normal precautions help keep risks low.Will sargassum ruin my trip?
Seaweed arrives in seasonal waves. Hotels clear it daily, but visibility varies by beach and week. Choosing properties with breakwaters, pools and nearby inland activities offers a hedge.Are prices up dramatically?
A stronger peso means you may spend more in dollar terms than in 2022, yet packages remain competitive with Caribbean peers. Booking flights two to three months out and watching for flash sales can offset currency swings.Is Mexico City worth the hype?
The numbers suggest yes. World-class museums, street food and a growing craft-cocktail scene have made the capital one of Latin America’s hottest urban stays—now with direct flights from dozens of U.S. cities.The takeaway for American travelers
For beach loyalists, fewer compatriots could translate to shorter check-in lines and sweeter package rates. For adventurers ready to mix things up, Mexico’s urban and cultural centers are rolling out the welcome mat. Either way, the data signal a maturing travel relationship: the Mexican Caribbean is still a star, but it no longer needs to shine alone. — as Vázquez said at a May press conference.Destination
