U.S. tourism slump persists amid Trump-era chill

Las Vegas, Los Angeles and other U.S. gateways confront a drop in overseas arrivals, creating fresh dynamics—and potential deals—for international travelers. LAS VEGAS — The neon canyons of the Las Vegas Strip felt as busy as ever this summer, yet behind the blackjack tables the tourism math told a different story. International visitation to the United States, including to Las Vegas itself, has slipped noticeably since February, and a growing stack of industry forecasts now predicts the chill could linger well into 2025.

International arrivals: the data behind the dip

According to preliminary National Travel and Tourism Office figures covering the first seven months of the year, the United States welcomed more than 3 million fewer overseas visitors than during the same period last year—a slide of 1.6 percent. The category excludes travelers from Canada and Mexico, meaning the setback is concentrated among long-haul markets that typically stay longer and spend more. Western Europe, historically the largest source region, shrank by 2.3 percent overall. Denmark registered the steepest European contraction at 19 percent, followed by Germany at 10 percent and France at 6.6 percent. In Asia, double-digit declines from Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines weighed on totals, while several African nations likewise sent fewer travelers stateside. Not every passport group stayed away. Arrivals from Argentina, Brazil, Italy and Japan rose, showing that pockets of growth remain even in a cooling climate.

Forecasts point to a longer slowdown

Two influential research bodies have now sketched out parallel scenarios that look increasingly sobering:

• World Travel & Tourism Council. Examining 184 countries, the council projected ahead of Memorial Day that the United States will be the only destination where foreign visitor spending declines in 2025.
• Tourism Economics. Earlier this month the firm downgraded its expectations for 2025 to an 8.2 percent drop in international arrivals. Though slightly brighter than its previous 9.4 percent decline forecast, the new figure still leaves the nation well short of pre-pandemic benchmarks.

“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” Simpson said in a council briefing.

Politics, policy and perception

Analysts largely agree that multiple headwinds are converging—rising airfares, a strong dollar and a shaky global economy among them. Yet a sizable share of the blame, they argue, stems from Washington. Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has rebooted hard-line initiatives that colored his first term: a renewed travel ban affecting mainly African and Middle Eastern nations, visa-processing crackdowns, expanded immigration raids and a fresh push for tariffs on imported goods. Travel advisors say the moves have reinforced an image abroad that the United States is less welcoming than in years past. Deborah Friedland of Eisner Advisory Group summed up the sentiment during a recent industry webcast: rising costs, political uncertainty and geopolitical tension have combined into a “formidable cocktail” that discourages discretionary trips.

Real-world fallout for events and cities

Big-ticket gatherings often serve as bellwethers, and this year even niche cultural events have felt the pinch. Three months into Trump’s second term, the International Lindy Hop Championships saw a wave of competitor withdrawals—primarily from Canada and France, which together supply roughly half its attendees. Co-producer Tena Morales is now weighing whether to relocate the 2025 finals outside the United States. “They don’t want to come here,” Morales said. The nation’s capital has taken notice as well. Destination DC, the marketing arm for Washington, projects a 5.1 percent decline in overseas arrivals in 2024. To blunt the damage, it has launched a campaign starring local residents that showcases the “more personal side” of the city, hoping to offset the images of National Guard deployments and federal crackdowns that recently dominated headlines.

Where the slump is most visible

• Las Vegas. Visitor counts through McCarran International Airport remained buoyant on the domestic side, yet foreign seat capacity was trimmed on multiple European and Asian routes.
• Los Angeles. LAX reported softer load factors on trans-Pacific flights, prompting airlines to swap wide-body aircraft for smaller jets during shoulder months.
• New York City. Midtown hotels experienced a steeper-than-normal summer vacancy gap for luxury rooms, an early sign of lost high-spend travelers.
• Canada–U.S. border towns. Communities from Niagara Falls to Bellingham, Washington, reported thinner crowds despite peak season.

What it means for international travelers eyeing the U.S.

For globe-trotters willing to cross the Atlantic or Pacific, the downturn could translate into unprecedented elbow room—and bargains—at perennially packed sites.

1. Hotel value in top tourism cities

With fewer overseas guests filling high-category rooms, upscale properties in New York, Washington and San Francisco have begun rolling out third-night-free promotions or including resort-fee waivers. Keep an eye on midweek stays, traditionally dominated by business travelers but now sometimes lightly booked.

2. Flight competition where capacity remains

Although some trans-oceanic routes have been downgauged, airlines are still locked into winter schedules they filed months ago. Watch for flash sales when carriers try to stimulate demand; Los Angeles–Tokyo, Miami–São Paulo and Dallas–Madrid have already surfaced under-$600 round-trip fares for November departures.

3. Attractions minus the crowds

National parks that usually struggle with overtourism—think Yosemite or Acadia—are posting more available entry permits. City museums, including the Smithsonian’s most sought-after galleries, report shorter security lines even on weekends.

Tips for Travelers

1. Check visa wait times early. Consular backlogs remain uneven. If you need a B-2 tourist visa, start the paperwork as soon as you lock plans.
2. Leverage weak-dollar promotions. Many tour operators are quoting prices in euros or pounds to entice hesitant Europeans; paying in your own currency could sweeten the deal.
3. Monitor travel-advisory politics. Several foreign ministries have issued cautionary notes about U.S. safety and policy uncertainty. Carry required health insurance and stay updated on any new entry rules.
4. Bundle domestic legs. Airlines are pivoting capacity toward leisure-heavy sun destinations within the United States. Booking a single multi-city ticket can guard against missed connections caused by aircraft swaps.

FAQ

Is it harder to clear U.S. immigration right now?

Travelers from nations included in the revived travel ban will face stringent scrutiny or outright denial. Others still benefit from Global Entry and Mobile Passport kiosks, but longer secondary-inspection waits have been reported.

Could the situation change after the 2024 election?

Industry economists say expectations hinge heavily on policy signals from whoever occupies the Oval Office in January 2025. Forecasts will be updated soon after Election Day.

Are domestic travelers affected?

U.S. residents may find that popular attractions feel less crowded and hotel upgrades clear more easily, but overall flight prices remain elevated because domestic demand is still high.

Looking ahead to 2025

Tourism Economics’ 8.2 percent decline forecast has become a benchmark for destination marketing organizations building budgets. If the prediction holds, the United States would finish 2025 with roughly 65 million foreign visitors—well below the nearly 80 million recorded in 2019. Few experts expect a quick snapback. Currency trends, global conflicts and public-health worries all remain wild cards, but perception can lag reality. Once lost, the sense of being welcomed takes time and effort to rebuild. For travelers, the next 18 months could prove to be a rare window—one in which America’s marquee attractions stand ready for their close-ups, minus the record-breaking crowds of the last decade. Simpson’s warning at the council briefing may sound grim, yet for adventurous visitors the message is clear: the welcome mat may feel smaller, but the runways and roads are wide open for those who seize the moment.