El Niño forecast raises fall and winter travel risks

A rare, potentially record-setting El Niño is raising the stakes for fall and winter travel, from flood-prone coastal destinations to ski resorts facing uncertain snow conditions. In a Sept. 28, 2026, report for Outside, contributor Jen Murphy examined the regional outlook and gathered advice from weather scientists and travel-risk specialists on preparing before transportation and essential services break down.

Outside reports that NOAA’s latest forecast gives the developing event a 75 percent chance of becoming the strongest since records began in 1950. That is a forecast, not a guarantee of conditions at any particular destination. The experts Murphy consulted emphasized flexible reservations, extra time around fixed departures and acting on deteriorating forecasts rather than waiting for a storm to arrive.

What makes this El Niño different

El Niño is the warm phase of a naturally occurring Pacific climate cycle that changes rainfall patterns and tends to raise global temperatures. According to Reuters, NOAA formally declared El Niño conditions in June, and the World Meteorological Organization expects the event to reach peak intensity by early 2027.

The word “super” needs context. Reuters reports that the WMO does not officially use that classification. NOAA’s thresholds range from a weak event at 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal equatorial Pacific temperatures to a very strong event at 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal. The WMO expects the developing El Niño to intensify into a very strong event with significant temperature and rainfall impacts, according to Reuters.

Reuters also distinguishes the natural cycle from the warming climate around it: Climate change does not cause El Niño, but global warming can make its effects more intense. For travelers, the concern is not simply warmer weather. The pattern can mean heavy rain in some regions and drought in others.

Where flooding and transportation disruptions are concerns

Outside’s regional travel outlook comes from Nick Cavanaugh, founder of weather prediction company Sensible Weather. His assessment points to wetter-than-normal winter conditions across the southern U.S., with heavy rain, flooding and winter storms possible along the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast and Atlantic seaboard. Road closures are among the potential consequences, particularly for outdoor destinations and coastal resorts.

California also faces the prospect of intense rain and flooding, Outside reports. The same storm systems could deliver substantial mountain snow, but favorable recreation conditions and transportation problems are not mutually exclusive. A promising snow outlook is not, by itself, a reason to discount the disruption risk described in the report.

Farther south, Cavanaugh told Outside that El Niño typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions from December through February to coastal Ecuador and northwestern Peru. Heavy rainfall and flooding can affect roads and transportation, particularly in mountainous areas. The relevant planning issue is access as well as conditions at the destination.

Ski forecasts are not snow guarantees

Outside describes a possible north-south divide in western winter precipitation, with the broader El Niño pattern potentially favoring snow in the Sierra Nevada and Utah’s Wasatch Range. Across parts of the northern U.S. and Canada, the pattern typically favors warmer and, in some places, drier winters. Cavanaugh’s outlook includes more sleet and ice and less snow in the Northeast and Canada, with potentially lower-than-normal snowfall in Europe as well.

But the historical record does not support a simple promise of exceptional skiing. Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and a research meteorologist at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, told Outside that past strong El Niño years have produced both exceptional and below-normal Sierra Nevada snowpacks.

For a ski booking, I would treat that uncertainty as a reason to preserve options, not chase a seasonal label. Cavanaugh’s advice in Outside is to prepare for varied conditions and include activities that do not depend on a perfect powder day.

Caribbean and Pacific storm risks differ

El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear, potentially reducing tropical cyclone development across the Atlantic and Caribbean during the latter part of the 2026 hurricane season, according to Cavanaugh’s outlook in Outside. Hurricane risk still remains. Reduced likelihood is not an all-clear for a beach trip.

The central and eastern Pacific can see increased tropical storm activity during El Niño years, Outside reports. The publication also notes NOAA’s warning that El Niño could elevate wildfire risk in Hawaii. Travelers should not apply an Atlantic storm outlook to a Pacific itinerary; the regional patterns described in the report differ.

Build flexibility around departures you cannot miss

Dan Richards, founder and CEO of Global Rescue, advised Outside readers to book changeable flights and accommodations, avoid tight connections and identify alternatives before departure. For a cruise, expedition or essential international connection, he recommends building extra time into the itinerary, including arriving a day early.

That advice targets the part of a trip where a delay can have the greatest consequence: reaching a departure that will not wait. Richards also cautioned that severe weather does not need to hit the destination to derail the journey. Storms far away can affect aircraft, connecting airports, rail service and transportation networks. His recommendation is to monitor transit points as closely as the final stop.

Timing matters once forecasts deteriorate. Richards told Outside that travelers should make changes before flights are canceled, hotels fill, roads become congested or evacuation orders are issued. Waiting for visible bad weather can leave fewer alternatives.

For beach, golf and resort trips, Cavanaugh recommended properties with flexible policies, indoor amenities or weather-related reimbursement options. Outside also describes specialized services such as Sensible Weather and WeatherPromise that can refund part of trip costs when weather disrupts a vacation. Those options address a different concern from preserving transportation flexibility: the weather-sensitive activities travelers are paying to enjoy.

Prepare for outages, not just delays

Richards’ final preparation advice in Outside goes beyond reservations. Severe weather can knock out electricity, cellular networks, electronic payments, fuel supplies and local transportation. He recommends keeping devices charged, carrying backup power, maintaining access to emergency cash and keeping passports and important documents immediately accessible.

The strongest reason to prepare is not certainty about a particular storm. It is the range of disruptions the report identifies. A flexible booking, time before a fixed departure and essentials within reach each address a different failure point. None requires waiting to see whether this El Niño ultimately sets a record.